Legislative elections in France: An Endless Embroglio with Few Consequences on International Affairs

Understanding Macron’s decision.

Article 12 of the French constitution (1958) authorizes the president to dissolve the parliament and to convoke new legislative elections. In the history of the 5^th Republic, this possibility has been exploited several times to respond to political crises. In 1962 and 1968, Charles de Gaulle respectively used it in the context of the Algerian Independence War and May 1968 Protests. In 1981 and 1988, Francois Mitterrand used it twice. In 1997, Jacques Chirac dissolved the parliament after his government was unpopular because of structural adjustments and reforms, including the reform of the French pension system. Finally, Macron used it in 2024 after his party suffered an astonishing defeat in the European Parliament election.

Macron’s decision was not surprising, but his timing was. Since Macron was elected, the perspective of a dissolution was floating in the air. Indeed, after the 2022 legislative elections, Macron's party (Ensemble) obtained 250 seats in the Assembly, which was insufficient to rule the country and vote for new laws to pass without making punctual alliances. Given that there are 577 members in the French parliament, having 282 members is necessary to rule without making an alliance. In short, the results of the 2022 legislative elections had already led Macron to consider dissolution.

Nevertheless, the timing of the dissolution was more surprising. By deciding to dissolve the parliament just after the success of the Rassemblement National (RN), a far-right political party, and the failure of his own party at the European Election, Macron was clearly taking the risk of losing the legislative power. While Macron's official explanation is that it requires "clarification" (clear decision and opinion) from the people regarding his rulership, it could be surmised that he wanted either to create a new and larger alliance to face the RN or to let an unprepared RN government rule until 2027, allowing his successor to easily win the 2027 presidential election and the subsequent legislative election.

In any case, all the political leaders were surprised by his decision. For instance, the Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation to Macron. Some deputies and ministers would have preferred to rebuild another and larger alliance without dissolving the parliament.

The result of the legislative election:

The breakthrough of the RN

The RN has made tremendous gains because of the dissolution. In terms of elected members in the Assembly, the RN obtained 89 in 2022 and 143 after the 2024 elections. In 2022, the RN obtained 4,248,537 votes. It was 10,625,662 for the 2024 legislative election if we included the RN allies and 9.3 million for the RN alone. In terms of vote, the RN is now the major political force in France.

This election provides the RN with more economic resources. Indeed, in France the political parties are not mainly supported by private donation (which are strictly regulated) as it is the case in the US, but by public money. For each vote at the legislative election, a party will receive 1.61 euros. In short, the RN will receive 15 million euros each year, compared to around 6.8 million previously.

In short, the RN is in an excellent position financially and politically for the 2027 presidential election, while its initial goal of gaining an absolute majority was dashed. It seems clear that the RN will continue to use the media to cultivate its respectability (though this is still undermined by its pro-nazi, antisemitic, and xenophobic origins) in preparation for the 2027 presidential election. They will probably let Macron's party oppose the reforms of the Left (NFP, New Popular Front), except for those linked with immigration policies. The RN will patiently wait in the Assembly and occupy the public sphere.

The difficult revival of the Left

The Left parties, namely the Socialist Party (PS), the French Communist Party (PCF), the Ecologists (EELV) and the rebellious France (La France Insoumise, or LFI), surprisingly decided to make an alliance to prevent the RN from winning the legislative election.

This alliance was a surprise because the former alliance (NUPES, New Ecological and Social People’s Union) was clearly a failure. In 2022, the Assembly members of these parties were supposed to work together, but they were, in fact, constantly and publicly opposed to each other on crucial matters.

However, this new alliance was quite successful, particularly benefiting the PS.

Overall, the alliance obtained 182 elected members, making it the first political group in the French Assembly. To this extent, they won the election. Compared with the previous election, the PCF continued its decline with only 9 members. The PS gained 30 elected members (from 35 to 65). The LFI only gained two elected members (from 75 to 77), including those who were previously in the party but left due to internal quarrels. Finally, the Ecologists gained three elected members (23 to 28).

The ability of this new alliance to govern remains uncertain, given the composition of the Assembly and continued internal quarrels.

First, the new alliance (NFP) cannot pass a new law without obtaining the support of other parties, which are completely reluctant to support its program (abrogation of the pension plan reform, an increase of the minimum salary, fiscal reform to tax the most affluent…). The future government will probably use a decree, in which case they will risk a censure motion (with the risk of a dissolution of the government). Finally, some texts can be passed through a referendum. In any case, France might experience further political instability and political polarization.

Given these circumstances, the parties composing the NFP face difficulties  governing and choosing a prime minister. The LFI would like strict application of the common program. Other parties want to identify areas of potential agreement with opposing factions and endorse a less ambitious political agenda. They want a more moderate figure as prime minister, while the LFI, considering itself the strongest component of the alliance, wants a prime minister from its own ranks.

The impossible equation and divisions within Macron’s party

Macron's-led alliance lost most of its elected members. They had 250 elected members in 2022 and only 165 in 2024.  Therefore, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe suggested a coalition with the traditional right parties (55 elected members from the Republican Party), including other remaining right-party candidates. Macron ruled out this possibility, but it might arise later, especially if the NFP government is dismissed after a censure motion. Another member of Macron's party suggested an alliance with the left party, while excluding to govern with the LFI. In short, they advocated a center-left government, while Edouard Philippe advocated a center-right government. This proposal was ruled out by the Socialist Party. In any case, their strategy is not yet clear and might change in the future depending on other stakeholders’ decisions.

Forecast for internal and foreign policies

Given the composition of the Assembly, it is clear that France will experience a period of political instability and constant restructuring of the government until 2027. No alliance has enough influence, and each is very divided. Consequently, the political agendas of the future government(s) remain unclear and unpredictable at this stage.

Regarding French foreign policy, they might not change mcuh in the near future. Except for the RN, all the alliances have expressed their willingness to continue to support Ukraine and to remain a member of the European Union. Moreover, before the dissolution, Macron nominated new ambassadors to keep French diplomacy under control, whatever might happen. Because of potential cohabitation (a president and a prime minister from different political parties), French diplomacy may be more reluctant to engage in new initiatives while continuing to play a role in areas of consensus such as global warming, AI regulation, tariff barriers in Europe, and the defense of Ukraine. France will maintain its traditional alliance with other Western democracies while maintaining its relative independence from the United States, as has been the case since de Gaulle.

Consequently, the French attitude toward China is likely to remain unchanged and aligned with Macron’s previous declarations. China will continue to be seen as an important trade partner, a key partner for AI regulation and global warming, and simultaneously, an economic rival for French companies, given its different political system and willingness to defend its interests.